By the time you read this, the South Carolina primary will be over. As of this writing, some polls show Arizona Senator John McCain neck and neck with George Dubbya Bush. And, as so often happens in close campaigns, the negative ads and bizarre charges are flying from both sides. One of the nuttier ones comes from the Bush camp, which has charged that Democrats and "liberals", the favorite bugbears of the Republicans, are crossing the line to vote for McCain in order to make "mischief" in the party. The idea seems to be that no one seriously wants McCain as the nominee, because (the theory goes) McCain can’t beat Al Gore in the general election. Therefore, the people who voted for McCain in New Hampshire must be sneaky Democrats trying to trash the Republican Party.

I got news for you, Dubbya: the Democrats are more afraid of McCain than they are of you. For one thing, if you and Gore are the nominees, and you’re dumb enough to try to take Gore on in debate, he will eat you for lunch. Sure he’s a Washington insider (like you’re not, despite the fact that your Daddy was President), and Al Gore may be the nerd’s nerd, but that comes in handy when you’re in a situation where you need to have all your facts straight. By the way, George, you figured out who the President of Pakistan is yet?

In addition, McCain doesn’t have to carry the baggage of the drug-use allegations. For the record, I think these questions about whether Dubbya inhaled a little Brazilian Marching Powder in college are (a) unfair and (b) irrelevant. But when David Letterman or Bill Maher can still get yucks from their late-night audiences by calling Dubbya a cokehead, it’s become part of the political landscape. Dubbya shouldn’t have to deal with it, but he does, and McCain only has to deal with allegations that he’s nuts. As for Gore—well, there’s people who think that a little artificial stimulant might actually be good for him. (Again, for the record, I’m not one of them. I’ve seen Gore try to be "up." It ain’t pretty.)

Finally, McCain’s big issue--campaign finance reform –hits Gore squarely in his most vulnerable spot. The sickly smell of incense from the Buddhist Temple fiasco still clings to Gore, and while McCain is not exactly pristine pure on this issue, at least he admits it more often than Gore, who is prone to fits of the old Clinton Bob n’ Weave.

Dubbya seems to be in deep denial here. He just can’t believe that McCain is making a decent showing against him, despite Bush’s enormous campaign war chest and his legion of endorsements. The fact is, however, that enormous chests only impress the average voter when they’re on "Baywatch." There’s a deep undercurrent of suspicion in the mind of Joe Sixpack towards anybody with that kind of dough and the support of the Republican Establishment. A lot of people swallow their suspicion and support Bush because Bradley, despite his promise, is still very much the long shot, and they just can’t stomach the idea of a presidency that they, rightly or wrongly, assume will be "Clinton 2: The PG Version." In many of the "man on the street" polls that I’ve seen, people say they support Bush for one reason: he looks like the winner. But if McCain hands Bush a couple more defeats, or even pulls off a few close second-place finishes, I predict that support will begin to erode. Bush’s support may be wide, but it’s not deep, at least not right now.

No, George, believe it or not, there is such a thing as an independent voter. There’s an awful lot of people, who, like myself, left their old party affiliations because they felt, in the words of Jay Leno, that "Every time I think of joining the Republicans, they do something greedy, and every time I think of joining the Democrats, they do something stupid." It’s the independents who are going to make the difference in this election, just like they made the difference in New Hampshire

There are a lot of people who, like me, believe that anyone who manages to tick off the political Establishment as bad as John McCain has can’t be all bad. We independents are real. We’re out there.

And we’re coming.

COPYRIGHT 2000 BY JERRY D. RHOADES, JR.